Ward 40: O'Connor Safe

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Ward 40: O'Connor Safe

Long-­time Alderman to cruise to easy victory

CHICAGO, IL -­ Ogden & Fry, conducted a 1-­Question Poll for Aldertrack on Sunday, February 1, 2015 for 40th Ward Alderman with 525 respondents. Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely voters. 

 

Patrick O'Connor 234 44.6%
Dianne Daleiden 120 22.9%
Undecided 171 32.6%
 

Margin of Error +/-­ 4.36% at 95% Confidence Interval

ANALYSIS

Despite reports of strong efforts by Daleiden to reach out to voters, long-­time Alderman and Emanuel's City Council floor leader, Patrick O'Connor holds a strong lead. Running against incumbents in Chicago has always been extremely difficult and this race is no exception.

Since most activity in Municipal Elections occurs in the last 2 weeks, there is still room for further development in this race, but the final order won't change.

 

METHODOLOGY

Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency. Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For Chicago Aldermanic elections, likely voters are randomly selected from voters who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 elections.

 

CROSSTABS

Respondents by Gender

Male 247 47%
Female 278 53%
 

Respondents by Age

Age 18 - 30 53 10.1%
Age 31 - 45 168 32.0%
Age 46 - 64 191 36.4%
Age 65 plus 113 21.5%
 

Respondents by Zipcode

60625 Count 228
60626 Count 15
60640 Count 76
60659 Count 110
60660 Count 95